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MNI FED WATCH: On Hold, Waiting Longer For Inflation To Recede

(MNI) WASHINGTON

Chair Jerome Powell won't rule out a rate hike if inflation stays firm, but it's not the FOMC's base case.

LATEST INSIGHT

MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Cuts Likely Delayed Till November -Lockhart

Former Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart says the clock has reset on gaining the confidence that inflation is trending toward 2%.

MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Poised For Higher For Longer Stance - S&P

There may be some transitory factors in recent hot US inflation data, S&P economist tells MNI.

MNI Credit Weekly: Show Me The Earnings

Normal service is resumed; credit is trading firm once again, with geopolitical noise quickly fading to the background. Earnings seasondominated focus this week.

MNI BRIEF: Brazilian Inflation Still On Track -BCB Campos Neto

Central Bank of Brazil Governor Roberto Campos Neto said that inflation is in a convergence process toward its 3% target.

Political Risk

Trump's Position On Reproductive Rights Resonates W/Republican Voters

A new survey from Politico/Morning Consult has suggested that former President Donald Trump’s decision to stake out an ambiguous position on abortion, delegating responsibility to state jurisdiction, may have reduced some of his political exposure to the issue.

  • Politico notes: “Donald Trump’s leave-abortion-to-the-states tack may be the least harmful position the former president can take as reproductive rights remain the favorite campaign trail cudgel of Joe Biden and Democrats in the post-Roe era... Half of voters in a new POLITICO-Morning Consult poll support states making their own laws about abortion access, compared with just 35 percent who oppose that.”
  • Politico adds: “Three-fifths of self-identified Republicans say they support states making their own rules on abortion, a number that jumped to three-fourths when they were told that’s the position Trump supports.”

Figure 1: “Change in the percentage of respondents who said they "somewhat" or "strongly" agree that abortion should be left to the states after told it's the position Trump favors”

Source: Politico/Morning Consult

Israel: Last Chance To Secure Hostage Deal Bfore Rafah Invasion, Axios

Axios reporting that Israeli officials have told their Egyptian counterparts that Israel will give hostage negotiators "one last chance" to reach a deal with Hamas, but if there isn't progress soon it will move forward with a ground invasion of Rafah.

  • Axios notes: “The Egyptians are increasingly concerned about a possible Israeli military operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah and are making a last minute push for a hostage deal that would lead to a ceasefire in Gaza and stop an invasion of Rafah.”
  • According to the report, a delegation of Egyptian official told Israeli security officials today that they, “intend to put pressure on Hamas to secure a deal for the release of hostages.”
  • An Israeli official said: "Israel told Egypt that it is serious about preparations for the operation in Rafah and that it will not let Hamas drag its feet.”
  • White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told MSNBC a short time ago that he believes a, "renewed effort [is] underway with Qatar, Egypt and Israel to try to find a way forward in Gaza talks," adding that he thinks, "there is new momentum in hostage talks."

Biden Says He Will Participate In Presidential Debate With Trump

President Biden, speaking in a radio interview with Howard Stern today, has revealed that he is willing to participate in a presidential election debate with former President Donald Trump, reversing a long-held White House position against pre-election debates.

  • When asked by Stern if he would debate Trump, Biden replied: “I am, somewhere, I don’t know when, but I am happy to debate him.”
  • Biden's announcement comes after a group of major new networks issued an open letterto Trump and Biden urging them to hold a debate.
  • The New York Times notes that Trump’s campaign rallies have been recently, "punctuated with an empty lectern and placards reading: “anytime, any place, anywhere” in an attempt to publicly pressure Mr. Biden to debate."
  • The decision to debate could be a major risk to Biden as Trump is widely seen an a more nibble orator and less likely to be bound by conventional debate convention. It will also put Biden's age back into the spotlight and any signs of physical or verbal fragility will be amplified by the conservative media.
  • Although chatter of Biden's age has decreased following a stronger-than-expected performance at the State of the Union Address in March, it is still a prominent issue for voters and one which regularly features highly in surveys of voter concerns.

MNI Interview With Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart

  • MNI interviews former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

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