Week of March 18, 2012 thru March 24, 2012

Analysis: EMU Jan SA Trade Surplus Narrows As Imports Rebound

Seasonally adjusted results:

January: +E5.9 billion

MNI survey median: +E6.9 billion MNI survey range: +E5.0 bln to +E7.2 bln

December: +E7.4 bln (+E7.5 bln) November: +E5.4 bln (+E6.1 bln) October: +E0.3 bln (+E0.3 bln) September: +E1.6 bln (+E2.2 bln) August: -E2.0 bln (-E1.7 bln)

Non-seasonally adjusted results:

January: -E7.6 billion December: +E9.1 bln (+E9.7 bln) November: +E6.0 bln (+E6.3 bln) October: +E0.1 bln (+E0.5 bln) September: +E1.8 bln (+E2.2 bln) August: -E5.6 bln (-E5.4 bln)


PARIS (MNI) - Eurozone exports regained momentum in January, but a faster rebound in imports trimmed the seasonally adjusted trade surplus more than generally expected to E5.9 billion from the recent peak of E7.4 billion in December, Eurostat said Friday.

China Yuan Ends Up At 6.3227 Against Dlr vs 6.3300

BEIJING (MNI) - The Chinese yuan ended up at 6.3227 against the U.S. dollar on the over-the-counter market Friday, compared with Thursday's close of 6.3300.

The yuan traded between 6.3259 and 6.3203 on Friday.

The People's Bank of China set the yuan's central parity rate at 6.3200 this morning, compared with Thursday's 6.3359.

In the offshore non-deliverable yuan forward market, the one-year contract was trading at 6.3250 against the greenback in late afternoon trading, compared with Thursday's close of 6.3270.

The yuan's daily trading band against the greenback is currently set at 0.5%.

beijing@marketnews.com ** Market News International Beijing Newsroom +86-10 8532 5998**

[TOPICS: M$Q$$$,M$A$$$,MMQPB$]

China Money Week: Yields Steady On PBOC, Slowing Economy

BEIJING (MNI) - Chinese bond yields were largely unchanged this week as investors found themselves caught between stable central bank benchmark rates, which set floors for the market, and a slowing economy.

China Feb Social Finance Hits CNY1.04 Trln vs CNY956 Bln Jan

BEIJING (MNI) - China's total social financing rose to CNY1.04 trillion in February, up from CNY955.9 billion in January and CNY648.8 billion last February, the People's Bank of China said Friday.

The PBOC started publishing monthly total social financing figures since January in an effort to capture a greater range of financing channels in the Chinese economy than the traditional new loan measurement.

New loans in February stood at CNY710.7 billion, compared with January's CNY738.1 billion but slightly higher than market expectations of CNY700 billion according to an MNI survey.

beijing@marketnews.com ** Market News International Beijing Newsroom: 86-10-8532-5998 **


China Feb Net FX Purchases CNY25.1 Bln Despite Trade Deficit

BEIJING (MNI) - China managed to record a net positive foreign exchange purchase position in February despite a giant trade deficit, suggesting that capital is continuing to flow into the country despite falling exports.

People's Bank of China data showed net foreign exchange purchases of CNY25.1 billion in February, down from CNY141 billion in January.

The foreign exchange purchase position includes foreign exchange purchases made by both the central bank and commercial banks. A positive figure indicates that funds are coming into China while negative data shows outflows, including what may be speculative "hot money".

China booked a trade deficit of $31.48 billion (Y198.3 billion) last month, the biggest since 1989.

ASIA FX: Dollar Mixed on Profit-Taking; Firm Undertone Cited

TOKYO, March 16 (MNI) - The U.S. dollar consolidated its recent gains in Asian trade on Friday, hit by pre-weekend profit-taking, but the currency is expected to maintain a firm undertone amid prospects for a continued recovery of the U.S. economy.

Riskier currencies were steady against the yen and the dollar amid improved risk sentiment following gains on global equity markets on Thursday.

"While the dollar succumbed to position adjustments following the rapid gain of late, underlying positive sentiment toward the dollar is likely to be continued, given growing optimism about the U.S. economy," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior analyst at IG Markets Securities Co.

MNI Survey: Japan Feb Trade Deficit Seen Smaller at Y125 Bln

TOKYO (MNI) - The following are the median forecasts for Japanese economic data due next week provided by economists surveyed by MNI.

Thursday, Mar. 22, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The Ministry of Finance releases February trade data. Forecast: A deficit of Y125.0 billion, compared to a Y650.3 billion surplus in February 2011 and a Y1.477 trillion deficit in January 2012. It would be a fifth straight monthly shortfall.

Economists expect the trade balance in February to have improved to a deficit worth Y125.0 billion from a record deficit of Y1.477 trillion hit in January, which was caused by seasonal factors.

In January, the export slump caused by the global slowdown and the relatively strong yen was aggravated by the Lunar New Year holidays.

US Debt Auction Calendar for Treasury and Agency Issues

March 15

Source: U.S. Treasury, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Amounts in billions of U.S. dollars

Auction/ Settle- Prev. Pricing ment Maturity Auc. Source Issue Amt Date Date Date Size

UST 3-mo 33.0 19-Mar-12 22-Mar-12 21-Jun-12 33.0 UST 6-mo 31.0 19-Mar-12 22-Mar-12 Sep-20-12 31.0 UST 9y-10m TIP 13.0 22-Mar-12 30-Mar-12 15-Jan-22 15.0


-- All bill auctions at 11:30AM ET, notes and bonds at 1PM ET

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **


EMU Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data F-casts March 12th to 16th

Trade Balance - January - E Bln (sa)

Median Forecast 6.7 High forecast 7.2 Low forecast -11.0 Previous period 7.5 - Number of responses 6

4Cast n/a ABN AMRO n/a Barclays Cap.

US Treasury Maturing Issues Calendar

March 15

Source: U.S. Treasury Auctions; Monthly Public Debt Statement Amounts in billions of U.S.