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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI: Canada CPI Slows More Than Expected For Second Month
MNI: March "Dot Plot" To Show Fewer Fed Cuts, Ex-Officials Say
The majority of FOMC members are now likely to project two or three rate cuts for the year.
MNI UK Inflation Preview - February 2024
Inflation is expected to continue to slowly normalise across the major categories in the February CPI print. Analysts are generally split between both headline and services CPI printing in line with or 0.1ppt lower than the BOE's February MPR forecasts.
MNI BOE WATCH: March Hold Seen, Fresh Cut Clues Likely Sparse
The BOE looks sure to leave policy on hold at its March meeting.
MNI BOJ WATCH: Ueda Says Rate Path Will Depend On Prices
Governor Ueda signals a cautious path following the BOJ's exit from negative rates.
Putin Calls For Greater Readiness Of Sea Patrols As Navy Chief Replaced
Russian President Vladimir Putin is speaking at the Federal Security Service (FSB)'s headquarters. Says that "Kyiv, with support of the West, has turned to terrorist methods." Putin: "All attempts to break into our territory have failed".
Putin: "Russia must increase combat readiness of border guard forces, including at sea."
- Comes as the Russian Navy confirms the appointment of Admiral Alexander Moiseev as its new acting chief. This follows the dismissal of his predecessor Nikolai Yevmenov following the sinking of another vessel in the Black Sea Fleet by Ukrainian suicide drones. Ukraine claimedthat its forces sunk a patrol ship, the Sergei Kotov, in early March.
- While Russian forces continue to make slow and costly advances on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine, in the Black Sea Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have forced the Russian navy into a significant retreat.
- In late 2023, satellite imagery seemed to confirm that some Russian ships had been moved from the Crimean port of Sevastopol to Novorossiysk in the Krasnodar Krai fedral subject in the North Caucuses following a number of Ukrainian strikes.
- Without being able to effectively dominate the Black Sea and Ukraine's lengthy coast, Russia has provedless able to disrupt grain shipmentsfrom Ukraine - an economic lifeline for Kyiv that could prove crucial in maintaining the war effort.
Open Factional Tensions Plague Main Opposition Party Ahead Of Regional Elections
Several senior officials from the conservative camp centred around the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party publicly traded barbs, which was seemingly triggered by a report circulated in local media, suggesting that former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was considering founding a new centre-right party after the upcoming European elections. The reports also mentioned that Morawiecki might invite President Andrzej Duda to join the project, although the rumours were quickly played down.
- Morawiecki and Duda are often associated with a relatively moderate faction within the conservative camp, as opposed to PiS establishment and to the hardliners led by PiS allies from the Sovereign Poland (SP) party. Factional rhetorical struggles intensified as SP MEP Patryk Jaki in strong words accused Morawiecki and Duda of showing weakness in relations with the EU last week.
- Tensions between senior members of the PiS-centred political camp have been simmering since their defeat in the October 15 parliamentary elections, which inspired an ongoing blame game between leaders of different factions. Internal instability pushed party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski to change his decision to retire in 2025 and pledge to stay on for the foreseeable future. Continued instability bodes ill for the party's performance in next month's local and regional elections.
Qatar FM Spox-Not Close To Gaza Ceasefire Deal, But Remain Hopeful
Wires carrying comments from a spox from the Qatari Foreign Ministry following the latest round of negotiations regarding hostages held by Hamas and the prospect of a ceasefire in Gaza. Seems to offer somewhat contradictory comments. Says that Qatar is "cautiously optimistic about Gaza ceasefire talks, technical negotiations are ongoing," but then adding "We are not close to a Gaza ceasefire deal, but remain hopeful."
- Spox: "The next major objective of the Gaza ceasefire negotiations is to send a counterproposal to Hamas."
- Spox: An Israeli operation in Rafah will result in major destruction and 'atrocities' that have not been seen in the conflict.
- Confirms that Mossad director David Barnea has left Doha. This is despite his negotiating team asking for “a significant amount of time to conduct the negotiations so that it would be possible to improve the deal, and to deliver an outline that we can stand behind" according to Israel's Ynet.
- US President Joe Biden added to the voices warning against an IDF operation in the city of Rafah in a call w/ PM Benjamin Netanyahu on 18 March. Israel will send a team to Washington to discuss the matter with White House officials after US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that the USwould not support a ground offensive in the city under any circumstances.
Kremlin-No Decisions Yet On Reaction To Possible EU Grain Tariffs
Wires reporting comments from Kremlin spox Dmitri Peskov speaking on a number of issues. Regarding the FT reportearlier today claiming that the EU is set to impose tariffs on Russian and Belarusian grain, Peskov says that 'We have seen the report...we need to analyse details and time frame and then will make decisions." Should the EU tariffs come to fruition it would be the first restrictions on Russian food imports since the initial invasion of Ukraine.
- FT: "...according to people familiar with the plans, the European Commission is in coming days expected to impose a €95-per-tonne duty on cereals from Russia and Belarus. That would increase prices by at least 50 per cent, the people said, eradicating demand. Tariffs of 50 per cent would also be placed on oil seeds and derived products."
- The Commission is believed to favour tariffs rather than sanctions as the former do not require unanimity at the Council, but only a qualified majority vote (55% of member states representing 65% of EU pop.).
- The FT notes that while Russian grain accounts for only 1% of total EU consumption, the amount imported has actually increased over the course of the war.
- On NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's visit to the South Caucuses, Peskov says "Attempts by NATO to expand its presence in the region are unlikely to contribute to stability."
- On President Vladimir Putin's reported visit to China, says "Several high-level contacts are being prepared." Putin will speak at the Federal Security Service (FSB) later today.
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MNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - BoJ Exit Favours Lower Vol, Lower JPY
MNI US OPEN - BoJ Ends NIRP and YCC, Maintains JGB Buying
MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Bull Cycle Extends Post-BoJ
MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: USD Rallies Post BoJ & RBA Decisions
MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: BoJ Ends NIRP, YCC, But Maintains Bond Buying
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: YTD Yield Highs For US 2s and 5s Ahead Of BoJ
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.