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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI RBA WATCH: Bullock Stresses Data, Switches To Neutral Tone
RBA Governor Bullock stresses the importance of data for the cash rate's future path.
MNI BRIEF: BOJ Ends Negative Rate, YCC, Maintains JGB Buying
The BOJ has decided to exit negative rates and end yield curve control.
MNI PBOC Watch: LPR To Hold, Idle Funds Targeted
The PBOC will take measures to channel ample liquidity down to the economy as interbank leverage rises.
MNI Bank Indonesia Preview – March 2024: IDR Needs Fed To Ease First
Bank Indonesia (BI) is unanimously expected to leave rates at 6.0% at its March 20 meeting given the persistence of a high level of “global uncertainty” and little new domestic information since the last decision.
MNI BCB Preview - March 2024: Focus On Potential Guidance Adjustment
All surveyed analysts believe that the Copom will continue the easing cycle with another 50bp cut, bringing the Selic rate down to 10.75%.
Gov't Hits Back At China Def Min Claims On Himalayan Territory
(MNI) London - A spokesman for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs Randhir Jaiswal has hit back at comments from the Chinese Defence Ministry regarding the state of Arunachal Pradesh in the Himalayas. "We have noted the comments made by the Spokesperson of the Chinese Defence Ministry advancing absurd claims over the territory of the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh. Repeating baseless arguments in this regard does not lend such claims any validity. Arunachal Pradesh was, is and will always be an intergral and inalienable part of India..."
- Tensions between New Delhi and Beijing have ticked up in recent days amid a visit to the contested border state by Indian PM Narendra Modi. The visit comes as part of a whistle-stop tour of Indian states by the PM ahead of a general election expected in the spring. While there Modi inaugurated the Sela Tunnel, an INR8.25bn (GBP77mn) project that The Independent reports, "is anticipated to facilitate the Indian army in enhancing defence measures along the contentious border known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC)."
- Following Modi's visit, Chinese Ministry of Defence spox Zhang Xiaogang claimed that, "the southern part of Xizang is an inherent part of China's territory, stressing that China "never acknowledges and firmly opposes" the so-called Arunachal Pradesh illegally established by India.."
- Tensions have flared up from time to time along the border where tens of thousands of troops are believe to be deployed, but without small arms, sometimes resulting in melee skirmishes in the mountain passes.
Foreign Min Calls For Using Profits From Russian Sovereign Assets To Fund Ukraine's Defence
- Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told reporters after yesterday's summit with his colleagues from across the EU that the bloc has made a "political decision" to use the proceeds on frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine. Sikorski said that in his view, the money should be used now to help Ukraine fund its military expenses and repel the aggression rather then in the future for post-war reconstruction.
- Former MPC member Lukasz Hardt told money.pl that Poland had a problem with demand-driven inflation even before the COVID-19 pandemic and the NBP should have started communicating readiness to raise interest rates back then. Hardt was appointed to the MPC by President Andrzej Duda for 2016-2022.
- Poland's top military commander Wieslaw Kukula said that "to put it bluntly, Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO, with full awareness that it is a defensive alliance." He flagged ongoing work on improving defence capabilities and building the ability to maintain military potential and readiness amid long-term pressures.
BER Releases Inflation Expectations Survey, ANC & MK Party Face Off In Court
- The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) will release its quarterly inflation expectations survey at the top of the hour. These reports are one of the factors monitored by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), which wants to anchor inflation expectations at the +4.5% Y/Y mid-point of its inflation target range. The latest CPI report will cross the wires tomorrow morning.
- The African National Congress (ANC) and the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party will cross sabres in the Electoral Court today after the current governing party accused the political newcomers led by ex-President Jacob Zuma of failing to comply with due relevant procedures, arguing that its registration with the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) should be nullified.
- US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo returned from a visit to South Africa saying that it has left him "more bullish" on the local economy. In his view, if the country's leaders "are able to reduce those headwinds [i.e. energy and logistics problems), which they have the capacity to do, there's real opportunity for them to grow beyond expectations."
- Israel has asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to refuse South Africa's request for new measures to prevent famine in Gaza, describing it as an attempt to "relitigate what the court has already decided and to have the Court micromanage the conduct of hostilities in Gaza."
Support For Biden Weak Amongst Democrats
A survey from Ipsos, released over the weekend, has provided more evidence that the winner of the 2024 presidential election will likely be determined by which party can more successful motivate turnout of their base, rather than explicit support for either candidate.
- The survey finds that, while support for both Biden and Trump is weak within their respective parties, only 30% of registered Democrat voters - who intend to vote for Biden - are doing so because they support Biden as a candidate. 57% of Democrat voters intend to cast their ballot as a vote against Trump.
- Ipsos notes: "2024 isn’t going to come down to Trump or Biden convincing Americans to change sides – it’s more a matter of convincing their existing base to actually vote."
- Betting markets and pollsters continue to see Trump as the slight favourite. According to Smarkets, Trump has an implied probability of 48% of winning, compared to 35% for Biden.
- RealClearPolitics' presidential election poll tracker currently shows Trump with a 1.7% advantage over Biden (47.2 - 45.5).
Figure 1: Reasons for Voter Support for Biden and Trump
Source: Ipsos
MNI REAL-TIME COVERAGE
Most Economic Indicators Expected to Deteriorate by End-2023/Early-2024
Timely & Actionable Insight on Central Bank Policy
Timely & Actionable Insight on FX & FI Markets
Timely & Actionable Insight on Emerging Markets
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MNI NEWSLETTERS
MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Bull Cycle Extends Post-BoJ
MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: USD Rallies Post BoJ & RBA Decisions
MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: BoJ Ends NIRP, YCC, But Maintains Bond Buying
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: YTD Yield Highs For US 2s and 5s Ahead Of BoJ
MNI ASIA OPEN: Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Policy In Focus
MNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - Stacked Central Bank Week
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.