By Karen Mracek
JACKSON HOLE, WYO. (MNI) - While Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen didn't
provide a clear signal to markets on Friday on when the next rate hike might
happen, she did provide some new, sobering information on just how much they can
depend the Fed's rate forecasts.
Spoiler alert: Not much. While the median forecast for the fed funds rate
in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.38%, her chart showed, the 70% confidence
interval shows a range of 0.16%, essentially the zero lower bound, and 4.6%,
which is 1.3 percentage points above the longer run estimate.
Yellen, in her long-awaited Jackson Hole speech, showed for the first time
the confidence intervals behind the Summary of Economic Projections, the
so-called dot plot.