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Kremlin-No Decisions Yet On Reaction To Possible EU Grain Tariffs

Wires reporting comments from Kremlin spox Dmitri Peskov speaking on a number of issues. Regarding the FT reportearlier today claiming that the EU is set to impose tariffs on Russian and Belarusian grain, Peskov says that 'We have seen the report...we need to analyse details and time frame and then will make decisions." Should the EU tariffs come to fruition it would be the first restrictions on Russian food imports since the initial invasion of Ukraine.

  • FT: "...according to people familiar with the plans, the European Commission is in coming days expected to impose a €95-per-tonne duty on cereals from Russia and Belarus. That would increase prices by at least 50 per cent, the people said, eradicating demand. Tariffs of 50 per cent would also be placed on oil seeds and derived products."
  • The Commission is believed to favour tariffs rather than sanctions as the former do not require unanimity at the Council, but only a qualified majority vote (55% of member states representing 65% of EU pop.).
  • The FT notes that while Russian grain accounts for only 1% of total EU consumption, the amount imported has actually increased over the course of the war.
  • On NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's visit to the South Caucuses, Peskov says "Attempts by NATO to expand its presence in the region are unlikely to contribute to stability."
  • On President Vladimir Putin's reported visit to China, says "Several high-level contacts are being prepared." Putin will speak at the Federal Security Service (FSB) later today.

Formal Request To Dissolve MFP Submitted To Const Court Ahead Of Its Wednesday Meeting

The Election Commission (EC) filed a formal petition with the Constitutional Court, asking it to dissolve the Move Forward Party (MFP), which won a plurality of votes in last year's election, but found itself in the opposition as a result of a political deal between the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) and the royalist/military establishment.

  • A source told the Bangkok Post that it is unclear if the Constitutional Court will accept the petition for consideration at its next regular meeting scheduled for Wednesday. Former election commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn recently said that the court might need around two months to issue its verdict.
  • The decision to request a dissolution of Thailand's main opposition party was announced last week based on a court verdict which classified the MFP's proposal to amend the strict lese-majeste law as an attempt to overthrow the monarchy.

Scholz Pledges 'Clear Signal' Of Support For Kyiv Amid Gov't Divisons

Wires carrying comments from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, saying that the West "Needs to send a clear signal to Putin after the election about our support for Ukraine". Says that he last spoke to Putin "more than a year ago", but that the prospect of speaking to him again "needs to happen at the right time". Says that Putin "believes Belarus and Ukraine belong to Russia" and that redrawing border is "his dream". Says that Germany pledges support for "as long as necessary", while US President Joe Biden pledges for as long as the US can.

  • Scholz's pledges are coming under increasing pressure from within his own party. In a Bundestag debate Rolf Mutzenich, chair of Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats in the legislature, asked Instead of asking how to wage war, isn’t it time to ask how we can freeze a war and end it later?”. The remarks were criticised by the former Ukrainian ambassador to Berlin as 'nauseating'.
  • The liberal Free Democrats and environmentalist Greens, the SPD's coalition partners, have called for Germany to send long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Scholz has refused, with concerns of splits within his SPD a dissuading factor.
  • The German coalition gov't has experienced a number of difficult challenges in recent months, with the debate over Taurus missiles adding to those over the 2024 Budget and poor polling numbers for all three government parties. While an imminent gov't collapse looks unlikely, the June European Parliament elections could prove another flashpoint.

RTRS-Putin To Visit China In May

(MNI) London - Reuters claiming that according to its sources, Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China for talks with President Xi Jinping in May. This would mark Putin's first foreign trip of his latest term in office, and act as a further signal of Putin's intent to develop increasingly close links with China. RTRS: "Another of the sources said Putin's trip to China would probably take place in the second half of May. Two of the sources said the Putin visit would come before Xi's planned trip to Europe."

  • On 18 March reportsemerged that Xi would travel to France in May for talks with President Emmanuel Macron.
  • The 'no limits partnership' between Russia and China continues to be a major source of geopolitical concern in the West. Given the huge resources that Russia has had to funnel into its military to sustain its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has become increasingly reliant on Beijing as a trading partner in the wake of Western sanctions.
  • Indeed, French President Emmanuel Macron stated in May 2023 that (Russia) has de facto started a form of vassalization with China and has lost access to the Baltic that was critical to it as it has precipitated the decision by Sweden and Finland to join Nato,” Russian gov't officials pushed back on the comments, calling the Sino-Russian relationship is one of strategic partners.
  • Xi was one of the first major world leaders to congratulate Putin after his re-election in a contest deemed neither free nor fair by most Western nations.

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